Inc crystal ball
Submitted by jpark on Mon, 12/31/2012 - 09:43
I like this version of reality. Let's live there.
However, we don't get to pick the reality we live in.
As much as this sounds good, I don't see it.
Take a look at the funding ecosystem. From the LPs, to the GPs, and the portfolio companies. I know everyone thinks their children are all above average, but that's not the case. This is still a buyer's market. The pressures on GPs are to get returns, even if it's flat, that's a success. Because then the LPs can state they didn't lost money, cash on cash. And the dollars returned to the LPs, will be dollars available to the same GPs in the next go round.
I predict that many funds will not draw down 100% of the money they 'could' call. I say could, because several (all?) funds have heard from LPs, that while the money which was committed to the fund is still there, the LPs will remember who did and did not draw down capital during these hard times. And some may be less willing to commit money to the next fund, depending on how well the GPs responded to the signals sent out.
I may be too much of a bear. But I don't see the fundamentals turning to clear skies, not in the private markets, nor in the public markets. Challenges are great, and the fundamentals still need to support these rosy projections.