Post Mortem on 2011 predictions and 2012 predictions

 

Here is what I wrote at the end of 2010:

http://j-lp.com/blog/2010/12/post-mortem-2010-predictions-and-2011-predictions.html


 

New predictions for 2011

Not sure this time. I haven't been doing much thinking about what's to come in 2011.

The crash is not over, so a double dip, or continued decline is likely.

Separation of potential ideas and quality ideas will continue, and someone will have a concept that will be considered obvious after the fact. Something akin to the beer and diapers correlation.

Nasty surprise as many more economies that were floating along will crash. States and nations will have difficulty in the coming year. There will be some bail out efforts, but after a while, the energy will deflate, and no more support will come.

 

How did I do?

Crash is supposed to have been over. I still don't see it. Not the growth that was supposed to happen in 2011, but I'll call this a draw. I still think there's more down to go. But right now, I won't acknowledge an upswing right now.

 

As for a core idea that's fundamental, I'm not sure if I can recognize it right now. Tablets and android seem to be coming into their own, and right now an android tablet is supposed to displace the ipad the same way that iphones are being displaced by android phones.

 

On the idea that economies will crash, I'll claim this one as a success. I won't claim to have known that the idea for disbanding the Euro was what I meant. However, it was in the realm of possibility, and today, there is a non-zero chance of that happening. Tomorrow, the Euro will be a very different currency than today.

 

So predictions for 2012.

There is a tired feeling behind the clean/green movement. This means the initial surge of expectations is over, and the real yoeman's work is going on now. Will we see some of the results in 2012? hopefully. We should see some changes in the energy realm, as the oil-sands come on line, and large natural gas resources start to enter the marketplace.

 

On technology,

we should see a directed attack on smart-phones/tablets, especially as these items are allowed to interface into people's home and office networks on a regular basis.

 

Economics

I think there will be a crash in the US and other parts of the world. In a world with relative scales, I think the dollar will still be the strongest currency. China and Australia look to be in a housing crash, along with Canada. The EU has already suffered from overhyped real estate. However, no one has gone through the pain associated with a crash.

 

It takes effort and pain to work through the hangover of a bubble. In the recent past, we've been fortunate enough to jump from bubble to bubble, and avoid the harsh payment. But now, I don't think there's anywhere else to run. The west saw a huge release of resources with the fall of the iron curtain. But without that support today, without the flood of resources and talent, it's unlikely to support such a huge growth.

 

Things are going to move in an uneven pace in 2012. Likely to see areas currently supported take off. And some fields continue to remain the same “2 years away” that they were last year. Electric cars will probably fit that description. Again, I think that automated vehicles and laws allowing these things will determine the success of electric vehicles. Right now, I still expect to see an island economy be the first to wholly adopt and drive the electric vehicle industry. Possibility Japan again.

 

The oil sands might be the huge release of natural resources that can recover from a bubble. But that will help the US economy, not other parts of the world.

 

We should see an acceleration in the extraction of resources from South American and Africa.

 

I don't know if we'll see a hyper inflation in the dollar, we've already had a huge increase in the money supply, but with quantitative easing, we haven't seen those dollars enter circulation. Once we see the banks use that cash, it'll affect things greatly. But for now, we're in a deflationary scenario more than inflationary.

 

I've been criticized for being too much of a bear, which is probably right. What good news can I come up with right now? Once the recovery starts, it will be a strong, but slow growth. But it will be a time where, as Kipling said, “Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken, And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tool:”

The challenge still lies before us, and once we stop listening to the vampiric/parasitic industries and start building fundamental growth, we won't succeed. However, once the rebuild has begun, it can create true wealth and prosperity.