Predictions of Christmas

Take a look at where we were in the spring. The buyers for this Christmas season had to get their orders in for the season back then. I'm presuming a nine month time lag from the time merchandise is ordered till it arrives at the store and on the shelf.

Thus the expected stock up of merchandise that we will see in November has already been ordered. Some has already been produced and is in the process of shipping now.

Understand that the buyers were doing their best guess when placing those orders. And right now, based upon what I've read on shipping volume and prices, not that much was ordered.

The very high end stuff might continue to do well. The aspirational products will likely not sell well. Then again, those types of products were probably not ordered.