Timing is everything

Submitted by jpark on Fri, 08/08/2008 - 06:38
 
They mention that wind/solar/biofuels are the big ones, with cellulosic ethanol having great potential.
 
And here I am, thinking that ethanol is the wrong way to go.  Because I don't believe that ethanol is energy dense enough to be a fuel.  And in the long run, I'm still sticking to the thesis that we will have electric vehicles.
 
But how much money can be made in ethanol in the interrum? 
 
We've seen that most of the money in corn based ethanol is wastes/burned.  Many of those moonshine stills won't ever turn a profit.  Most of those folks should have sold out early on.  But now they're left with holes in the ground, or huge empty tanks.
 
The plan was for corn based ethanol plants to become cellolosic ethanol plants after the technology was perfected.  And we're still waiting on that technology/conversion.
 
Because I don't have a good sense of timing right now, I'm not sure if it is the right time to invest in the leap frog technology over biofuels, or just wait it out.
 
An old friend of mine described the situation with netscape and microsoft when the browser first came on line.  His dad had asked if there was anything to the browser idea.  The response was, yes, but don't bother investing, Microsoft will take over the market.  Now this was all true.  But had the father invested in netscape, he would have made a mint in the time it took Microsoft to catch up and then dominate the market.
 
So am I looking at that scenario now?  Just jump into biofuels, and ride them up, while the next generation of technology slowly filters in and eventually takes over.  Or just keep the money on the sidelines, until the stars are better aligned?
 
For now, until I see something more compelling, and more innovative, and robust, I'll wait.