I am now, have been and will be wrong

I was talking with a friend over drinks tonight, and I tossed out the saying that it takes $40 million to train a VC. And you can't really tell if a VC is any good or not, until about 10 years have passed.

This made me think of another conversation I had at Cleantech, where one person mentioned “Perhaps because this investment group put money into the company, the company will do well.”

Investors have less influence on the success of a company vis-a-vis the amount of credit they seem to receive. A good company, with good customers, will do well. No matter who invested, or when the investment was made. The market and execution are important, not the name behind the money.

The best an investor can do is accelerate the execution. But a bad investment is a bad investment. And no name behind the company can save it from itself, or market conditions.

Now, if you throw out the management team, listen to customers, sell something they'll buy, and you can make a profit. Then you've got the beginnings of a success.