How to tell luck from skill
It's hard, actually, it's impossible given a single shot.
In poker, it's well known that anyone can get lucky (good or bad) on a single given day. But the concept that some people win more money in the long run gives rise to the belief that there is skill involved. The skill is often overwhelmed by the noise, but long term trends bear out a winner and a loser in the game.
It's a poor analogy, but one I'll continue to use.
A strong stable company usually takes years to create. Relationships, transactions, year over year commerce with customers are necessary. Quick fads can make a lot of money, but the danger is building a business based on a fad, not a need.
In poker, there's a similar caveat. The guy who's sat down and won a big pile of money in an hour is usually playing too many hands. He got lucky. If he stays at the table, he will regress back to the norm, and start losing again. If he continues to play in the manner that got him up so high: risky cards, chance gambles, then he will lose all his money. The best thing he can do is get up and walk away, the hardest thing for him to do is get up and walk away.
This is why it's so hard for a successful company to really examine what it is doing, and why people are buying. They're trying to ride the tornado up, and fail to understand the underlying pressures of the business. If it's a fad, a quick run, then enjoy the ride, and evaporate when the fad's over.
If it's a sustained business, then while you're growing so big/fast, reinforce your business structures. In Star Trek, there's the old joke of repairing the redundant back-up systems. Now this is the 4th line of defense. Primary, secondary, back-up, redundant back-up. I'm not suggesting you waste your time in building up 4 levels of bureaucracy while riding the tornado up. But creating a stable secondary chain of command, just in case, is always a good idea. Having that chain of command grow along with you on a weekly/monthly basis is even better. You won't have to do a huge annual clean up.
It's hard, but that's why so few people do it well
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